domenica 20 dicembre 2015

La politica spagnola si italianizza: Spagna al voto!

Foto: eldiario.es
A meno di un'ora dalla chiusura dei seggi, in un paese stravolto dalla crisi, la Spagna torna alle urne dopo quattro anni di governo Rajoy. Colpito da scandali di corruzione e indebolito da riforme impopolari, con un tasso di disoccupazione che sfiora il 23%, il PP del premier uscente con molta probabilità non riuscirà a governare da solo, portando sul panorama spagnolo l'esperienza più unica che rara di un governo di coalizione.

C'è chi parla di "atomizzazione" del prossimo parlamento o di "italianizzazione" della politica spagnola, visto che l'emergere di nuove forze politiche stasera spazzerà ufficialmente via il bipartitismo PP/PSOE - uno schema questo praticamente esistente dalla "transición" (1975) ad oggi. Già alle elezioni regionali della scorsa primavera l'emergere di Ciudadanos - partito regionale catalano convertitosi in partito nazionale grazie al carisma del giovane Albert Rivera - e Podemos - il partito di Pablo Iglesias, alter ego spagnolo di Tsipras, in grado di capitalizzare il movimento degli "indignados" e trasformarlo in offerta politica - ha permesso l'emergere di coalizioni di governo in quasi tutte le regioni. Una novità in una Spagna la cui legge elettorale e la scarsa offerta politica hanno sempre permesso l'alternanza destra/sinistra (tanto a livello centrale come periferico) con l'appoggio di partiti regionali come CiU, PNV o Coalición Canaria, o di piccoli partiti nazionali come Izquierda Unida o UPyD. Proprio questi ultimi due, unica alternativa finora a popolari e socialisti, sono però stati fagocitati dalla grande novità di questa campagna elettorale per nulla noiosa: Ciudadanos e Podemos, appunto, che hanno eroso consensi principalmente a PP e UPyD il primo, al PSOE e a Izquierda Unida il secondo.

La nuova destra di Rivera e la nuova sinistra di Iglesias hanno insomma rimescolato le carte, rendendo incerto chi sarà il prossimo inquilino della Moncloa e la governabilità di un paese, dove arancioni (C's) e viola (Podemos) entreranno in massa soltanto nella Camera dei Deputati e non al Senato. Un problema, se si pensa che in Spagna, come in Italia, la doppia lettura per approvare una legge è d'obbligo.

Con un'affluenza alle urne che non è riuscita a crescere nonostante le aspettative e la capacità delle forze emergenti di mobilitare le nuove generazioni, probabilmente stasera ci troveremo con una valanga Podemos, simile allo tsunami a 5 stelle del febbraio 2013, con il PP prima forza e Pablo Iglesias al secondo posto. Il PSOE del bel Pedro Sánchez, in una crisi senza precedenti, si attesterebbe al terzo posto, mentre Ciudadanos, dato al secondo posto fino a qualche giorno fa, potrebbe deludere le aspettative.

Ancora poche ore e ne sapremo di più. È comunque fuor di dubbio che a partire da domani niente sarà pi' come prima nella politica spagnola.

AV


lunedì 16 novembre 2015

Do we risk an "israelization" of our western cities?

In these hours the web is full of comparisons between 11/13 Paris attacks and what happened in NY on 9/11. Just like fourteen years ago, the mainstream opinion is that we are at war and not safe anymore in our own western countries, freed from violence, battles and massacres decades ago. 
It is hard to say if we are at war - WWIII  many say - or under attack. But are we at peace?
In the last years we have had an increasing toll of jihadist attacks but just steal a glance at this list published on Wikipedia and you'll realize that Islamist terrorist attacks existed even before Bataclan and the IS (or Daesh), and years before Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. Remember the 1998 US embassy bombing in Nairobi, where 214 people were killed, or the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, where 6 people were killed and more than 1000 were injured. Not to mention the 1979 Iran hostage crisis when 52 American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days during the Khomeini Iranian Revolution. Revolution which was supported by Jimmy Carter US to overthrow Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi dynasty. Not a surprise, if you look at recent history with Saddam's Iraq, Gheddafi's Libya and (unsuccessfully) with al-Assad's Syria.

Unfortunately, US and European politics in the area during the last 2/3 decades did not make things easier, creating monsters all around the Middle East and Africa Muslim countries, while worsening the stability of the region and the clash of civilization issue. As a consequence, the toll of terrorist attacks in the Western world evidently increased after 9/11:


  1. RUSSIA. October 23, 2002 – The Moscow theater hostage crisis was the seizure of the crowded Dubrovka Theater by Islamists. 170+ dead (including 40 perpetrators) 700+ injured.
  2. RUSSIA. May 12, 2003 – The 2003 Znamenskoye suicide bombing. 59 killed 200 injured.
  3. RUSSIA. February 6, 2004 – The February 2004 Moscow Metro bombing. 41 killed up to 120 injured.
  4. SPAIN. March 11, 2004 – Madrid train bombings, killed 191 people and wounded 1,800.
  5. RUSSIA. September 1, 2004 – Beslan school hostage crisis, approximately 344 civilians including 186 children killed.
  6. FRANCE. November 2, 2004 – The murder of Theo van Gogh by Amsterdam-born jihadist Mohammed Bouyeri.
  7. UK. July 7, 2005 – Multiple bombings in London Underground. 53 killed by four suicide bombers. Nearly 700 injured.
  8. UK. June 30, 2007 – 2007 Glasgow International Airport attack, 5 injured.
  9. USA. June 1, 2009 – 2009 Little Rock recruiting office shooting by Abdulhakim Muhajid Muhammad. 1 killed and 1 injured.
  10. US. November 5, 2009 – Fort Hood shooting, at Fort Hood near Killeen, Texas. 13 dead, 33 injured.
  11. RUSSIA. March 29, 2010 – Moscow Metro bombings. 40 dead, 102 injured. Caucasus Emirate claimed responsibility.
  12. SWEDEN. December 10, 2010 – 2010 Stockholm bombing, Sweden. killing the bomber and injuring two people.
  13. RUSSIA. January 21, 2011 – Domodedovo International Airport bombing. 37 killed, 173 wounded.
  14. GERMANY. March 2, 2011 – 2011 Frankfurt Airport shootingFrankfurt, Germany. 2 dead, 2 injured.
  15. FRANCE. March 20, 2012 – Toulouse and Montauban shootings in France. 7 dead, 5 injured.
  16. RUSSIA. May 3, 2012 – Makhachkala attack. 14 dead, including 2 suicide bombers, 130 wounded.
  17. BULGARIA. July 18, 2012 – 2012 Burgas bus bombing. 7 dead, including the suicide bomber and 32 injured at Burgas AirportBurgasBulgaria.
  18. US. April 15, 2013 – Boston Marathon bombings. Two brothers, Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnev, planted two bombs near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. The blast killed 3 and injured 183 others.
  19. UK. May 22, 2013 – Two men with cleavers kill British soldier Lee Rigby in Woolwich.
  20. FRANCE. May 23, 2013 – 2013 La Défense attack. An Islamic extremist wielding a knife attacked and wounded a French soldier in the Paris suburb of La Défense. 1 wounded.
  21. BELGIUM. May 24, 2014 – Jewish Museum of Belgium shooting. Gunman opened fire at the Jewish Museum in Brussels killing 4 people.
  22. AUSTRALIA. September 23, 2014 – 2014 Endeavour Hills stabbings. Numan Haider, an Afghan Australian stabbed two counter terrorism officers in Melbourne, Australia. He was then shot dead.
  23. RUSSIA. October 5, 2014 – 2014 Grozny bombing. 5 officers and the suicide bomber, were killed, while 12 others were wounded.
  24. CANADA. October 20, 2014 – 2014 Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu ramming attack. Lone attacker used his car to run over two Canadian soldiers. 1 killed, 1 injured.
  25. CANADA. October 22, 2014 – 2014 shootings at Parliament Hill, Ottawa. Lone attacker shot a soldier at a war memorial and attacked Parliament. 1 killed, 3 injured.
  26. US. October 23, 2014 – Zale H. Thomson, also known as Zaim Farouq Abdul-Malik, attacked four New York policemen in the subway with a hatchet, severely injuring one in the back of the head and injuring another policeman in the arm before being shot to death by the remaining officers, who also shot a civilian.
  27. RUSSIA. December 4, 2014 – 2014 Grozny clashes. 26 total dead, including 14 policemen, 11 Jihadist from Caucasus Emirate, 1 civilian.
  28. AUSTRALIA. December 15–16, 2014 – 2014 Sydney hostage crisis. A lone gunman, Man Haron Monis, held hostage ten customers and eight employees of a Lindt chocolate café at Martin Place in Sydney. Police treated the event as a terrorist attack at the time. It was however designated as a terrorist attack by the state government but Monis' motives have subsequently been debated. 3 dead 4 injured.
  29. FRANCE. December 20, 2014 – 2014 Joué-lès-Tours stabbings. A man yelling Allahu Akbar attacked a police office with a knife. He was killed, 3 police officers were injured.
  30. FRANCE. December 21, 2014 – 2014 Dijon attack. A man yelling Allahu Akbar ran over 11 pedestrians with his vehicle. 11 injured.
  31. FRANCE. January 7–9, 2015 – A series of five attacks in and around Paris kill 17 people, plus three attackers, and leave 22 other people injured.
  32. DENMARK. February 14–15, 2015 – 2015 Copenhagen attacks. A gunman opened fire at the Krudttoenden café and later at the Great Synagogue inCopenhagen, killing two civilians and injuring five others.
  33. FRANCE. April 19, 2015 – A 32-year Frenchwoman is murdered by a gunman whose plot to attack a church is foiled shortly after.
  34. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA. April 27, 2015 – At the Zvornik police station terrorist attack in the city of ZvornikRepublika Srpska, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, an armed member of a wahhabist movement opened fire on the police. In the shooting, a police officer was killed, two others were injured, and the attacker was killed by police.
  35. US. May 3, 2015 – Two gunmen attacked the Curtis Culwell Center during a 'Draw Muhammad' cartoon art exhibit in Garland, Texas . 2 dead (perpetrators) 1 injured.
  36. FRANCE. June 26, 2015 – Saint-Quentin-Fallavier attack – Beheading in a factory near Lyon, head marked with Arabic writing and Islamist flags. Gas canisters planted provoked a fire. 1 dead, 11 injured.
  37. FRANCE. August 21, 2015 – 2015 Thalys train attack Shooting and stabbing in train traveling from Amsterdam to Paris injures 5. The incident is believed by French police to be an Islamist terrorist attack.
  38. GERMANY. September 17, 2015 – An Islamist of Iraqi descent attacked and injured a police officer with a knife in Berlin. 1 injured, 1 dead (perpetrator).
  39. AUSTRALIA. October 2, 2015 – 2015 Parramatta shooting. A NSW Police Force civilian employee was shot dead outside NSW Police Force headquarters on Charles Street, Parramatta, Sydney by a 15-year old lone gunman. The gunman then engaged with NSW Police Special Constables in a shootout before being killed, 2 dead.
  40. EGYPT/RUSSIA. October 31, 2015 – Bomb on board a Russian jet brings it down in Sinai, bound for St Petersburg, killing 224 people.
  41. FRANCE. November 13, 2015 – A series of seven attacks kill 129 people in the capital city of Paris.

On top of the above mentioned, many other jihadist attacks failed in Europe in the last two decades. Many terrorists were arrested from our police forces, being prevented from perpetrating more massacres among our civilians. 
The aim of this post is proving that though there isn't any formal declaration of war, there is a strategy to bring urban guerrilla in our cities in the name of a terror religion led by the new barbarians. 
All along these years we tried to normally carry on our lives in both New York City or Paris, thinking that all this was isolated incidents. But if we don't deal with it, what we may experience in the near future is an "israelization" of our western territories where - every now and then - our biggest cities become the perfect scenario for a one night (or day) confused street war. Just like it happens in Israel every now and then since 50 years.

AV